ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s installed power generation capacity is projected to increase by 49 percent, reaching 64,035 MW by 2025, up from 43,069 MW in 2024, according to the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35.
The IGCEP, submitted by the Integrated System and Market Operator (ISMO) to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), is currently under review and will be formally approved after receiving stakeholder feedback. Alongside this, ISMO has also submitted the Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) 2025-35. Together, the generation and transmission plans require an estimated investment of over USD50 billion over the next decade.
According to the IGCEP 2025-35, ISMO has presented different scenarios: peak load will reach 43,069 MW in 2035 from 26,913 MW in 2024 with 4.4 per cent increase in load growth. Nearly 61 percent of electricity is to come from renewable sources — mainly hydro, solar, and wind. Hydropower will be 21,395 MW (34 percent) while solar is expected to rise to 21 percent. RFO 918 MW (1), imported coal 4,680 MW (7), local coal 3,300 MW (5 percent), RLNG 8,224 (13 percent), gas 1,4 33 MW (2 percent), nuclear 4,730 MW (7 percent), baggasse 400 MW (1 percent), cross border 1,000 MW (2 %) and wind 4,711 MW (7 percent).
The country’s installed capacity which was 41,516 MW in November 2024 expected to reach 64,035 MW in 2035. Of this, generation from local is expected to touch 3,300 MW, hydro, 21,395 MW, RLNG, 8,224 MW, nuclear 4,730 MW, imported coal, 4,680 MW, RE, 18, 455 MW, natural gas 1,433 MW, furnace oil 819 MW and cross border (CASA) 1000 MW.
The results obtained from above scenarios show that the capacity would become excess in future. Consequently, the electricity tariff will touch the highest numbers making it unaffordable for a common person. Hence, there is a dire need to rationalize the capacity addition required to meet the future load demand. In this regard, only under construction power plants have been considered as committed, remaining all power plants are modelled as candidates for least cost selection by the planning tool. The following sensitivities are performed in this scenario:
Access to relevant and quality data must be facilitated. A central data repository may be formed to facilitate planners and policy makers, having specific data privileges and to ensure access to quality data, for data modeling and decision making. In a similar vein, project execution entities should enhance and accelerate their response, with respect to provision of project data to NGC, for updating of the IGCEP, in a precise and timely manner.
Keeping in view the latest technological changes and latest advancements in the power supply and delivery business, customized trainings should be provided, especially for the power system planners, system operators, and DISCO staff.
In order to ensure indigenization of energy mix with higher share of clean energy, future plans are required to be aligned with international best practices pertaining to renewable energy.
Though not envisaged in the prevailing schemes, wind power projects can provide grid support such as frequency regulation, voltage regulation, and reserve power provided hybridization is opted with solar PV as well as battery energy storage. Grid impact and economic implication studies for individual wind power project will need to be carried out by the stakeholders.
The combination of wind and solar PV has the advantage that the two sources will complement each other since the peak operating times for each system occur at different times of the day and year. The power generation of such a hybrid system including battery storage, is more continuous, ie, fluctuates less in terms of time and frequency if these are developed and operated jointly. Enabling environment including regulatory and commercial arrangements as well as technical studies should be undertaken for this purpose to maximize the value of indigenous energy resources. The relevant project execution agencies should provide data hybrid RE technologies.
System operational performance and grid flexibility studies are required to be carried out for VRE intermittency management to ensure its optimal region wise penetration by considering ramping up/down capability by synchronous generators in the system and FACTS/BESS applications. The quantum and/or timelines of wind and solar may vary in future as a result of these studies.
Thar coal reserves are estimated by the Geological Survey of Pakistan to be approximately 175 billion tons – making it one of the largest lignite coal reserves in the world. Thar coalfield, Block II area has exploitable lignite coal reserves of 1.57 billion tons. The total mining capacity of the project is expected to be 20.6 MT/annum.
The ISMO is of the view that the power system planners should be communicated, by the project execution agencies, of the study-based analysis of block-wise potential of Thar coal that can be exploited for generation of electric power so it can be adequately modelled in the generation capacity expansion software for the next iterations. Similarly, the precision and authenticity of data and information pertaining to hydrology of upcoming hydro power projects needs to be validated by the concerned project execution agencies in the most meticulous manner.
Keeping in view the growing demand of net-metering connections in the country, its impact has been considered in IGCEP. The net metering targets for the NGC system were rationalized by industry experts as part of a solarization study conducted by the Ministry of Petroleum. This assessment was based on recent historical trends and the volume of solar panel imports recorded over the past year. This capacity of 8,120 MW is modelled at the supply side, since the generation through Net Metering will also be contributing towards meeting the Renewable Energy targets
Following the same approach used for the NGC system in the aforementioned solarization study, the net metering targets for the K-Electric system is projected to be 900 MW by 2035.
On net metering, ISMO has stated that the addition of Net-Metering in the recent past has shown very aggressive trend which has also reduced the energy supply from interconnected grid. However, the present regulations governing the net-metering are showing a great loss to remaining grid connected consumers. Therefore, an amendment in the regulations is very necessary so that the financial burden of infrastructure development should be fairly shared by all the consumers. The Government and NEPRA are in a process to amend these regulations. The new policy or regulations should be developed in such a way that there is a balance between both types of consumers.
On EV Policy, ISMO said that the policy for Electric Vehicles was approved in 2019 according to which 30 percent of the vehicles should be EVs until 2030. But the cost of EVs is much higher compared with other types, so the ground realities show that the implementation of the policy is negligible. In the iteration of IGCEP 2019-47, the load of EVs was calculated with extensive efforts and it was added to IGCEP then. But based on real data, the load of EVs is negligible and its adaptation is also negligible, hence the EVs load is not included in this IGCEP 2025. However, in next iteration, it may be included in IGCEP.
Sustainability of base load is a key factor in power system planning. Industrial load should be around 50 percent for affordable and reliable electricity tariff. Industrial development also guarantees the economic development of country which further reduces the burden of imports in the form of foreign exchange.
This will help to elevate the social standards of the people of the country. Similarly, the regulations regarding subsidy in gas for captive power plants needs to be revised so that high efficiency grid connected power plants could supply the same industrial load. This will also help to increase the base load of power sector. Consequently, the end-consumer tariff will be reduced.—MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN
